Models of consumer behavior: The state of the art

Models of consumer behavior have gained much acceptance since the early sixties. The purpose of this article is to examine the state of the art by reviewing the often cited models: Nicosia, Howard-Sheth, and Engel-Blackwell-Kollat. Specifically, a major objective is to consider these models from their practical utility standpoint, i.e., whether the models can be tested and used by marketers. To accomplish this, a set of criteria is developed for evaluation of models in general, and consumer/buyer behavior models in particular. The criteria used for evaluating the state of the art in consumer behavior models are largely derived from model building sources in various fields. The results indicate that although the models are quite impressive in scope, they are inherently weak to be of much help to the marketing practitioner. Indeed, none of the models have been tested as a whole in their original form because they lack specificity and thus are difficult, if not impossible, to operationalize. This article is partially based on a paper which received an award in an Academy of Marketing Science student paper competioion. The Academy encourages scholarly work by various groups through annual competitions and awards.     

A pre-diffusion growth model of intentions and purchase

In this paper, we investigate whether information on the history of purchase intentions is useful in predicting actual purchase behavior. The research is motivated by two factors. The first factor is the empirical finding in the literature that measuring intentions just prior to purchase provides better predictions of actual purchase as compared to when these intentions are measured earlier. The second factor is the role of the timing of the formation of intentions prior to purchase. While one stream of literature based on preference fluency predicts that early formation of intentions is more likely to lead to actual purchase, the other stream based on the memory-based “recency” effect predicts that formation of intentions just prior to purchase is more likely to lead to actual purchase. Together, these two factors motivate the potential need to account for the entire history of intentions prior to purchase. A canonical example of a market where intention histories are tracked is the movie industry, where “first choice” movie watching intentions are tracked up to (and in some cases beyond) the time of release. Accommodating the history of intentions in an econometric model that predicts actual box office performance is challenging due to the differing numbers of observations for the movies, the large numbers of observations for certain movies, as well as the role of various time-invariant and time-varying covariates influencing intentions. We propose a two-part model where the first part involves a hierarchical growth model that summarizes the trajectories of intentions via “growth factors.” These growth factors also reflect the role of the various covariates. The second part is a regression of the box office performance on the growth factors and other covariates. The models are simultaneously estimated within a Bayesian framework. Consistent with the previous literature, we find that including information on intentions improves our ability to predict behavior, with the recent intentions being the most informative. Importantly, when the history of intentions is accounted for, our results indicate that the data support the “recency” literature—intentions grow over time leading up to purchase, and this growth has a positive impact on opening box office performance. While a linear growth model performs best for most movies, there exists a subset of movies for which the quadratic growth model better captures the “spike” in intentions just prior to purchase. Further, accounting for information on the history of intentions dramatically improves model fit and forecasting performance relative to when only the intentions at one point in time (e.g., the ones just prior to purchase) are accounted for.     

Assessing the Value of Collaborations in Tourism Networks: A Case Study of Elkhart County,Indiana

This study explores the determinants of perceived value derived from interorganizational collaborations in a tourism destination. The authors propose a theoretical model of perceived value drawing upon the rich stream of literature related to strategic collaborations and interorganizational networks. The model was tested using a cross section of tourism organizations operating within Elkhart County, Indiana. The results indicate that a significant positive value of collaboration is achieved from dyadic relationships. Importantly, the results suggest that the positive effect achieved from one-to-one partnerships decreases once an organization collaborates with several other organizations. The article discusses various implications for managing strategic tourism partnerships.     

Competition In Mediation Services: Modeling the Role of Expertise,Satisfaction, and Switching Costs

This article analyzes competition among mediation service providers that match clients and vendors in a horizontally differentiated market. This is an issue that is important for decision support of mediators in determining pricing and service strategies. We present a simulation model to simultaneously represent search as well as the behaviors of clients, vendors, and multiple competing mediators. Among our findings: intermediaries find it optimal to offer registration fee incentives and derive revenues from transaction fees from successful matches; as switching costs increase, incumbent utilities increase and entrant utilities decrease; expertise, modeled as the ability of mediators to assess vendor attributes accurately, is a powerful competitive weapon for entrants to erode the incumbent intermediary's first mover advantage. On the other hand, client satisfaction is an instrument for an incumbent intermediary to deter entrance by competitors.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

A snapshot of public finance research from immediately prior to the pandemic: IIPF 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the pandemic, the Congress allows us to reflect on the state of research prior to the pandemic’s shock to both fiscal policies and our worldview. In this article, the Editors of International Tax and Public Finance reflect on interesting papers that were presented at this internationally representative conference in public economics. The exercise provides insight on where the field of public economics was heading prior to the pandemic and will provide a yardstick to see how the field evolves in the coming years afterward.

     

Study of kite string injuries in Western India

A prospective analysis of 104 patients (outdoor and indoor) with manja (powdered glass coated kite string) injury from January 2011 to January 2015 was carried out at Civil Hospital Ahmedabad. All patients were analysed for mode and severity of injury, site of injury, associated injuries, activity being performed when injury occurred, the clinical diagnosis and treatment required. Analysis of collected data revealed that majority of the injuries occurred while driving or in pedestrians with the neck being the most commonly affected body part. Males were more commonly affected with most of the victims in the age group of 16–45 years. Injuries sustained while driving tended to be more severe. All injuries were recorded in the month of January. No deaths were reported, but potentially fatal injuries did occur. Most of the injuries were superficial and could be prevented or mitigated by either protective clothing or by use of protective devices on vehicles, which should be implemented to reduce the morbidity of such injuries in the future. There were no ethical issues or vested interests associated with the study.